My Weather Segment is Back on Public Radio! KPLU

My weekly weather segment on public radio returns on September 2, but on a new public radio station: KPLU.   Specifically, I will be on Fridays at 9 AM for a full five minutes right after the NPR news and KPLU's popular segment Birdnote.   And they will repeat this segment twice in the afternoon during All Things Considered.

Click Icon to go to KPLU's Web Site

But it gets better than that!   I will be talking to Keith Seinfeld, an award-winning science journalist. Keith's been a staff reporter at The Seattle Times and The News Tribune in Tacoma and a freelance writer-producer.   His work has been honored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and the Knight Science Journalism Fellowships at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  I am looking forward to an active and interesting conversation with Keith, who plans to prepare carefully before each of our segments.  It makes a real difference talking to someone who is really interested and enthusiastic about a topic.

I will be talking to Keith Seinfeld, KPLU's  well-known science and health reporter

KPLU has good coverage over all of western Washington and, of course, you can hear them live on the web.

What really get me excited is that my segment will be guaranteed a full five minutes, which will always be at the same time.  This is in stark contrast to KUOW, where my weather segment was low priority and positioned at the end of the first hour of Weekday.   Week after week my time would collapse to only a few minutes, pushing me to throw out important material I really cared about.  Many weeks, especially at the end, they ran out of time, moving me to the second hour or cancelling the whole segment.  This was bad for listeners and it won't happen at KPLU.


The KPLU folks are doing even more.  We will be using internet-based calling and our tests have indicated studio quality audio, in contrast to the hard-to-hear telephone audio at KUOW.   And there will be a coordinated web presence, summarizing the special topics we will be discussing.


During major weather events, such as snowstorms and windstorms, I will be providing extra material on KPLU at other times and days.


I have been extraordinarily impressed with KPLU staff and their excitement about presenting not only the weekend forecast, but helping their listeners appreciate the complexity and fascination of our local weather and other weather topics of profound interest (e.g., global warming).  

Change is always hard, but I am convinced that this change is greatly for the better and will be a huge enhancement over what I was able to do at KUOW.   

I hope you will join me at KPLU on Fridays.  You can submit questions through my blog and through a KPLU email address that will be soon announced..  I really value direct interactions with listeners and hope that questions and comments will increase in this new venue.....cliff

PS:  If you are living in Seattle don't forget to vote for the Seattle School Board.   As I noted in a previous blog, we have real chance of turning the district around if we replace the incumbent candidates by some of the excellent individuals that are running:   Peaslee, McLaren, Martin, Buetow, and Whelan will make a difference.  I have talked with each of them and they won't give the administration a pass when things go wrong and will ask questions, compared to the startling incurious current board majority. 

PSS:  A major degradation of the weather on Sunday and first part of Monday as a relatively strong system comes in.  Expect clouds over the west on Sunday and a good chance of showers, particularly later in the day.  But things will greatly improve midweek.

Fears of a Double Dip

Nothing terrifies Northwesteners more.  

Many of us have suffered greatly because of it. 

Folks are depressed over its effects.  

Supposed experts are not sure which way it will go. 

And the media can't seem to get enough of it, with headlines and articles describing its unpleasant effects all the time.

The nation's financial mess?   Political paralysis in Washington D.C.?

No.....

 I am talking about the threat of...dare I say it?...the return of La Nina next winter.  Or to use a technical term:  a double-dip La Nina.

I know, we suffered from La Nina last winter and this spring, and the forecasts were for an escape to a neutral year.  But the atmosphere is not following the script and the Climate Prediction Center has just put out a La Nina WATCH, which means it is not certain but possible.


So here is the situation.  Last winter we were in a fairly strong La Nina, one that weakened during the spring.   A primary measure of La Ninas (and El Ninos) are the anomalies (differences from climatology) of the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific. The most well-known index is the SST anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region (see below).  The anomaly weakened to near zero by May, went slightly positive, and now is slightly negative.   Call it Neutral.

The trouble is that although the ocean say neutral the atmosphere has been holding to a La Nina-like configuration...including the troughing and cool weather along the West Coast.  And subsurface temperature sensors in the Pacific indicate cooling.  Ominous. 

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has a number of models available that simulate the tropical sea surface temperatures.  As shown below, they are all over the place..some near zero, some indicating warming, but an equal number going for cooling.  Looks like a coin flip.

Even more worrisome, the NOAA Coupled Climate Model, their main simulation model for the atmosphere and ocean, is now turning more towards the La Nina (negative) side (see below)

 A look at the history of El Ninos/La Ninas (the ENSO Index) over the past 60 years shows that double dips do occur...such as in 2008/9 and during the mid 70s. (La Ninas correspond to the blue negative excursions).   In fact, double dips are not rare.

So the bottom line:  a double dip, with La Nina coming back is a real possibility, but no sure thing.  By late September, we should have a much better idea, but believe me, we have gotten this wrong plenty of times in the past.

So if I was Mayor McGinn I would kick the tires of those snowplows and be ready to order some more salt if needed.  My group is rushing to complete a powerful new aid for the City, a web-based application called SNOWWATCH. You will not believe what it is capable of!  With the new coastal radar in place, expect better snow forecasts if it does occur.  And KING TV's snowmaven Jim Forman should get his famous parka cleaned--he might need it.

A New Chapter In Pacific Northwest Weather Forecasting

With all the depressing news these days, some good news is more than welcome.  And I have very good news:  some important Northwest weather history was made last week: the new coastal radar was turned on and we have received some of the first images.  After nearly twenty years of local lobbying for this device, it is now a reality. 

Lets not beat around the bush.  Here is one of the first images from the new Langley Hill radar, showing  conditions around 7:38 AM on Wednesday August 4.  This is from the lowest scan (.5 degree above the horizontal).  The clutter suppression capabilities are not fully operational right now, so you are seeing some returns from the Olympics and the mountains of SW Washington.   But look offshore--the greens and darker blues are from some very light rain over the Pacific.  Can't wait for the first real weather system!   There are some weak returns over the ocean near the coast, that might be reflections off the Pacific, but can't be sure from one image.

Just for comparison, here is what we have now--an image at the same time from the Camano Island radar.  See a difference over the ocean?

The radar will be tested and calibrated over the next month and then will be taken down for two weeks in September to add an important new capability:  dual-polarization.  This will allow the radar to differentiate precipitation types far better and will provide superior precipitation estimates over the mountains.    By the end of the September the radar should be back online and the output available through the web and on the media.

But there is one more upgrade.  This radar will be the first and ONLY National Weather Service radar in the U.S. to scan horizontally---called zero degree elevation angle.  This will allow the radar to see much farther over the ocean and to see better at low levels.  The NWS folks have decided to delay adding this capability until early November to insure it works properly.  At that point, the radar will be complete and ready for the storm season, which hits hard after the first week in November.

As I have mentioned on a number of occasions, Senator Maria Cantwell played a major role (in fact THE major role) in getting the resources for the radar.  Her office has put out a press release with more information today and it can be found here.


And don't forget the web site dedicated to the new radar (found here).  This site is updated regularly.

Weather this week---no major systems.   No major offshore flow/warm-up situations, so don't expect 80s and 90s west of the Cascade crest!  Lots of morning clouds with afternoon burn off.

Yesterday, with cool air over the Sound and warm air above, there were some really good superior mirages, with surface objects looming vertically.  I saw it clearly at Richmond Beach park, north of Seattle.  Greg Johnson of Skunk Bay Weather sent a nice video of it from his location in Hansville:

http://www.skunkbayweather.com/SuperiorMirage080711.html