What is the warmest place on Earth? Warmest in the Northwest?

Perennially chilled Pacific Northwest folks are naturally interested in warmth and so I thought I might share some results of very interesting article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, which attempts to find the hottest place on earth and here in the NW.  (Article is by David J. Mildrexler, Maosheng Zhao, and Steven W. Running of the University of Montana)

Do a search on the warmest place on earth and you typically get El Azizia, Libya with a record air temperature (at 2 meters) of 136F measured in 1922.  Furnace Creek in Death Valley National Park comes close 134.1F.  But there is another way to measure temperature--- determining the temperature of the ground (the skin temperature) from space.  We can do this by measuring the amount of radiation emitted by the ground (sort of like a super ear thermometer that uses similar technology)  Now this satellite approach has the advantage that it measures the temperatures everywhere and there is a good chance there is no observation at the hottest locations (who would want to live or work there!).  On the negative side, this is not air temperature, which is generally less than skin temperature on hot, sunny days--sometimes a LOT less.

Anyway, these folks at U. of Montana used data from 2003-2009 from the MODIS satellite, which has a resolution of roughly 6 km (so it is probably missing the absolutely hottest points).

Ok, get your icy drink ready...here is the answer.  This graphic shows you the results.  The warmest location seems to be in the Lutt desert of Iran.  The second graphic shows you a blow up of the temperatures and an image of that desert.  Looks like hell.  It is like hell.

Several places come very close....but Lutt is the winner.

But what about the Pacific Northwest--where is the warmest ground to be found (I suspect there is going to be a stampede there in a few weeks)?  Here is the graphic. The left shows the temperatures and the right the land use (click on image to expand)..

Looks to me that the warmest location is on the Hanford reservation where there is no irrigated fields.  Such fields have a large impact on temperature, something you can see by comparing the temperature map (blown up version below), with a google maps satellite image (also shown).  Evaporation off irrigated fields can cool temperatures down several degrees (F).

No jokes about warming from the radiation at the Hanford facility...this is not the cause.  And there are a few warm locations just south of the state boundary as well.  Anyway, another reason to head to the Tri-cities during the spring and fall when it gets cool on the west side.  But don't try this during winter!---the lowest elevations of eastern Washington are cool and cloudy in midwinter, as cold, moist air settles into the terrain bowl in that area.

Wildfire Season

Due to the high snowpack from our La Nina winter and cools condition extending into July, wildfire season has been delayed over the Northwest; however, recently there has been a significant increase in fire activity, reflecting drier than normal conditions during the past month and belated warming over our region.  And you haven't seen anything yet.

Here is the latest Forest Service map of fire incidents over the region--all of the them are east of the Cascade crest, mainly in Oregon.

You can see several of the fires on today's MODIS satellite imagery (click to enlarge--necessary to see the smaller fires):

The most prominent smoke plume is not from the largest fire-- the High Cascades fire, which is now encompassing over 100,000 acres near Madras, Oregon--but from the Dollar Lake fire, 16 miles south of Hood River (roughly 3000 acres).  The winds are clearly from the east and you can see the smoke plume moving WNW towards Portland. If you look carefully you can see the smoke from a small fire over the Olympics.

Here is a nice shot of the smoke from north of the Gorge looking south and another near Mt. Hood.

Both of these fires were initiated by lightning strikes.

The local wildfire problem is probably going to get much worse during the middle and end of next week.  No rain is in sight and after a minor cooling on Monday and Tuesday, the heat should really rev up mid-week as the ridge over the western U.S. greatly amplifies into a huge atmospheric blocking pattern.  Here is a sample forecast for next Wednesday...wow.  And there is no end in sight.

 West of the Cascades we should see the entire region (away from the water) moving into the mid-80s, with a number of daily high temperature records falling.

A major concern is that the burnable surface materials ("the fuels") are drying out rapidly.  Here is a Forest Service figure showing you the moisture content of the "1000-hr" fuels---the bigger, thicker branches and debris. Darker red indicate seriously dry fuels and this is only going to get worse.

 

 A key feature in predicting fires is the thermal tough--a region of low pressure associated with warm air (I blogged about such features last week).   Right now I am doing an intensive study of West Coast thermal troughs with support from the U.S. Forest Service--understanding their generation and movement.  Thermal troughs are associated with a deep, warm air mass that is relatively unstable and enhanced fire danger occurs as such troughs move across the Cascades, with strong winds and upward motion right behind. During the middle of this week an amazing thermal trough is predicted by our high-resolution models.  Want to see?  Here is the predicted sea level pressure and temperature at roughly 2500 ft:

 In short, we are going into one of the warmest September periods we have experienced in a long time and fire danger is getting serious.  The only good thing is that there won't be much lightning. 

Upcoming Warmth

During the past few weeks we have had really decent weather--generally dry, with periods of above and below normal temperatures.

Such variability, centered around climatological temperatures, is what normal is all about.
There has been enough sun and warmth for a miracle to happen---I actually have red, ripe tomatoes!  Few pleasures in life are greater.  Here is the proof:

Well, another miracle is occurring...we are going into a warm up period through the weekend and then the heat really revs up on Tuesday and Wednesday as a monster ridge builds up over the western U.S.  And it just stays in place forever.

Right now a weak trough is moving through, bringing increased cloudiness over the region.  Tomorrow (Friday) we should wake up to clouds, but they should break up during the afternoon...low to mid 70s.   But on Saturday ridging aloft develops (see upper level chart) and the temps warm with more sun.  Perhaps a bit warmer on Sunday.

But early in the week ridging really develops (graphic) and temperatures could hit the mid 80s.

And do you see that features in the lower right...another hurricane.  The NWS GFS model has this storm approaching the East Coast late Friday (see forecast for Friday AM below) but the forecast will surely change.  The latest solution gets the hurricane/tropical storm close before it swings to the NE off of New England.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center is suggesting increased probabilities for above normal temperatures through next week. (see graphic).

No fried green tomatoes for me!

Just a reminder...will be starting my KPLU weather segment tomorrow (Friday) at 9 AM...right after birdnote.